Pentagon plans online terror bets

BBC: "The Pentagon is to set up an online trading market for bets on future terrorist attacks or major political developments."

They're talking about the Policy Analysis Market, which isn't open till 1 October. The Iowa Electronic Markets seems to be the well thought of prior art. "Research indicates that markets are extremely efficient, effective and timely aggregators of dispersed and even hidden information," says the Pentagon.

The discussion over at MiFi sounds supportive, mainly.

More background from bloomberg.

I think the logic's pretty good "using the expertise of the open market instead of relying on government agencies". Though whether it'll be ripped off, is IMO open; by betting that somebody would be assassinated, and then assassinating them... Not sure if this would be insider trading or market manipulation ";->" But they're only allowing 1,000 traders, by the look of it, so I suppose they'd be vetted (10,000 by 01/01/2004). And the medium sums involved are more sport than retirement to the Bahamas.

But what if unusual trading warns an enemy that their plan (aka "specific potential events of interest") has been rumbled? Or, rather, no unusual trading tell them that they haven't been rumbled! Well, just like the site says, "should prove as engaging as it is informative."

 Source: BBC News | Technology | World Edition; 29/07/03; 12:45:16 pm.
1210  At: 3:24:47 PM  . .
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