My reply to the Guardian's leader

And in Iraq's nepotistic society, ruled be fear, where the ordinary citizen knows that one wrong word will be passed on by busy-bodies and will lead to death possibly death for the person's family too. In despotic cultures, there is no freedom, human rights, law, democracy, justice nor opportunity. If Arab cultures think it right that they should be ruled through a feudal system of absolute power, no wonder they look at the Western civilisation and think it obscene, just like any person looking on a neighbour who has everything and not a care in the world. Jealously, a primitive emotion has done bad things throughout history. This time it is us the rich, carefree neighbour who reverses the jealousy, we must bring good to the suffering, whether they want it or not. We have to stop the jealousy, show that they too can have what we have. As Mr Blair travels to Washington, only hours away perhaps from a final decision to wage war against Iraq, he might reflect that in politics, as in life, the very best of intentions can often produce the very worst of results. Once safely aboard his plane, Mr Blair might consider the thought that cherished aspirations and relentless, rough-hewn reality frequently collide. Iraq is one such case. In seeking fervently and sincerely to do right thing for Britain and the world, Mr Blair could not be more wrong. Whether or not his error, if consummated with George Bush at Camp David tomorrow, proves disastrous will thereafter be largely beyond his control. If he opts for war at this juncture, his quest for universal justice may trigger the very chaos he most fears. If, scorning reasonable alternatives, he decides that military means are the only way forward at this point, he will not only be mistaken. He may also undermine the admirable values and the moral authority by which he sets such store.

When a good man stays silent. Enough of this, poncing around. Sadam has pissed the UN around for 15 years. He'll keep on doing it, and he'll keep on showing those nascent terrorists that there is a way. Individual nations can stand up and defy the rest of the world. Right now, this war is wrong because it weakens the very democracy for which we are summoned to fight. If democracy's good health were the arbiter, Mr Blair would not be currently blocking out the roaring surge of opposition in Britain and around the globe. There would be a free, prior parliamentary vote on any proposal to send troops into combat. Right now, the country is deeply divided on this question, the armed forces under-prepared and equipped, the aims blurred and unconvincing, the likely consequences as incalculable as they are potentially dire, and the exit strategy remains unrevealed. Right now, for the people of Iraq, war promises a still avoidable but otherwise dreadful harvest of death, a bumper crop of the cruelly maimed, the orphaned, the displaced and the crazed. War will mean a prospective destruction far in excess of that wrought in Afghanistan in 2001.

It is not a roaring surge of opposition. It is fear of, for once, doing the right thing. Hey, why worry, it's so far over there, it's only Arabs who are suffering under Sadam's regime, suffering under sanctions. Anyway if we poke him in the eye, all his mates are going to get us. Let's stay quiet, and let him get on with his business. We need to inform the UK and world public, to remind them who Sadam and his henchmen really are. To show that this is for the good of that nation, and for the survival of our culture. The aims are simple. Oust Sadam. Reinstate democracy. With over overwhelming might it can be done, and it can be done quickly and hopefully without too much damage to the citizens. It is their war mongers inside Iraq that have the most to fear from the US/UK forces. But they also have to fear their own forces turning on them. And this is the easiest way out for the man in the street, speak up now. Right now the likely consequences of doing nothing is as incalculable as they are potentially dire. We will show weakness and this will allow the battle to come to us. This is a simple operation. We know that all of the Arab countries, although only the power brokers, and not the man in the street, and have been bribed and goaded by the US's might, but all are alongside our view that Sadam must be ousted. It is only Sadam and his henchmen that want to cling to power. War at this time is wrong because, given Iraq's currently unresolved, ambiguous circumstances, it is not a remotely justifiable or sensible way to conduct our affairs. Does anybody honestly believe that if Baghdad falls to US armour and Saddam is dethroned, that will be the end of the story? Those who enthusiastically support an attack may yet have their "victory day". But even as they turn away in tricked-out triumph, and turn away they surely will, as after the one-day wonder of Kabul's capitulation, the real problems will begin in earnest.

I hope it is not the end of the story, and, this time it won't. 9/11 has woken us up to the stupidity of ignoring the rest of the world. Turn away from all that oil? All those Muslim schools teaching hatred? I doubt it. War cannot and should not always be avoided. Here is no argument for a blanket pacifism; this newspaper supported the Kosovo intervention and the 1991 Gulf conflict. But war must be a means of last resort, when all else fails. That moment has not yet come. It may never do so. War, as in Mr Bush's careless hands, must not be an option of choice, dubiously decreed, pre-emptively and partially prosecuted, and electorally exploited. Have we learned nothing from the past? Did history somehow stop on September 11? Are we, the British people, so vicariously panicked by the Bush administration's global fright that we forget the lessons of reconciliation, humility, tolerance and common sense belatedly grasped at the close of our own imperial era? This is not to be "anti-American". It is to be pro-American in that country's best, egalitarian tradition.

The lessons of reconciliation, humility, tolerance and common sense tell that to the North African terrorists. What grudge do they have? None, other than the usual fashionable hatred of all things non-Muslim. As he speeds across mid-Atlantic skies, pondering perhaps the "special relationship" that brought us to this pass, there are alternative state of the union messages that Mr Blair himself might deliver to his host. This policy is impolitic - because Britain's home and future lies within a unifying Europe, not with the US alone. This administration's multi-faceted importunity could yet force that long-avoided choice. It is inept - given the intensified Muslim anti-western resentment and retaliation that will surely result. It is foolish - in that it will at least delay and may wholly derail British and other efforts to achieve a more vital, pivotal settlement in Palestine.

The anti-western resentment is deep and well routed, already. Nothing we can do except crush it, and crush it hard. We need to ensure that 'it' never happens; no dirty bombs, no small scale gas attacks, or one mad man wandering around an airport with infected with smallpox. The US and ourselves need to be world policemen. Guaranteeing that this pandora's box is never opened wider. Hopefully one day we too will be able to put our weapons away. There will never be peace in Isreal while the Palestinians hold out hope that they can win the media with violence. While Sadam pays the families of 'martyrs.' While the situation in the middle east is so unstable. Even as he touches down, Mr Blair's journey will not be over. The prime minister should think again. This crisis is not primarily about Iraqi weapons of mass death, with which many more powerful, less circumscribed states are better armed. It is not primarily about fighting terrorism, despite the alleged links between Iraq and al-Qaida. But terrorists, our far deadlier foe, will doubtless make of it a new casus belli. For some sceptics, it is about oil, about dreams of American empire and a remade Middle East of Pentagon protectorates. But official hyperbole now rings as hollow as an Iraqi warhead. This war is not primarily about democracy or freedom, much as the Iraqi people deserve both. And it will most certainly not deliver justice for all. It is, fundamentally, about the wilful exercise of unrestrained global power, unfazed by considerations of international law, the principles of collective UN security, and the consequences for everyman. Iraq will form an awesome precedent for what Gerhard Schršder calls the "law of the jungle". Iraq is just the beginning.

The law of the jungle started with 9/11. For sure this will turn into a new crusade, it will have to, and in some ways it will be what Osama's gang always wanted. For the US to attack blindly, angering the rest of the Muslim world to take up arms. Good. Hopefully they'll gather together to fight, all the easier to wipe out. If they don't and fight an asymmetric war, a terrorist war, then we'll take up the style of the Israelis to defeat them, total, bloody recriminations. When Mr Blair finally arrives at Camp David, his choice is plain. Like Mr Smith, he can cling to his endangering, ideal vision of a world forcibly, imperiously and imperviously improved. Or, at last gasp, he can banish illusion. Britain should back the UN route of inspections, containment and diplomacy. It should withhold support for unilateral US action. It's the right thing to do. Or else, at home as well as overseas, chaos threatens.

Chaos is already at our door step with much more to come. It would be nice to bring the UN along with us, but once battle is joined it won't matter.

743 Also posted to: Home page . At: 10:45:14 AM  . .
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Other title(s) for this story: Guardian: Speak for this nation

"Saddam, 65, is a master of deception who has managed to elude the world and internal coup plots through his 24-year reign. "Saddam knows what America would like to do to him, so he rules from the shadows," said Wafiq al-Sammarai, a former chief of Iraq's military intelligence who defected in 1994. "He is one of the most paranoid, but also one of the best-defended, leaders in the world. He will make it hard, maybe even impossible, for America to get him." "

739 Also posted to: Home page . At: 12:26:32 AM  . .
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Other title(s) for this story: U.S. units ready to hunt and possibly kill Saddam

" Iraq will provide supplementary data to the 12,000-page arms declaration presented to the UN Security Council on Dec. 7. Baghdad candidly admits by this point that it flouted Resolution 1441demanding a full and truthful account of its forbidden weapons. That declaration was termed at the time Saddamâs last chance to comply with the resolution and avoid military action. On Monday, the UN inspectors rewarded Saddam with one more last chance in the lengthening series of last chances.

All these points cover a variety of commitments by Baghdad, barring one: to disclose and hand over its arsenal of unconventional weapons. "

738 Also posted to: Home page . At: 10:54:06 PM  . .
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Other title(s) for this story: DEBKAfile: Blix, ElBaradei Unravel Resolution 1441

"Officials said the interior ministers plan to explore ways to end Islamic propaganda for the recruitment of insurgents and planning of attacks. The plan would also cover sermons given in mosques during after Friday prayers as well as Islamic fundamentalist literature distributed in and around mosques. "

Maybe they'll do something about the hate taught in schools, after all. Maybe.

731 Also posted to: Home page . At: 1:37:30 AM  . .
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Other title(s) for this story: List One News Item

"A huge popular march will be organized tomorrow ,Saturday in Damascus to protest the American aggression on Iraq and to express support to the Palestinian heroic Intifada."

And in 76 other Arab States, apparently, while we here in the West march for peace

730 Also posted to: Home page . At: 1:23:02 AM  . .
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Other title(s) for this story: Syria: Damascus, Jan.17

""It took us 4 1/2 years against a concealment mechanism to find the hard evidence of an offensive biological weapons program," says Terry Taylor, a British senior UN weapons inspector from 1993 to 1997. "The Iraqis have learned a lot from that process, and are more adept than they were at hiding things from the inspectors.""

Also, about the intelligence they're (not) receiving from the US/UK. I'd guess the real intelligence is so scant but well placed that it's more likely to be a top placed exec saying, "yeah, we got stuff but no fucker knows where it's hidden. Nobody alive."

As they're definitely hiding the stuff, why? They're willing to use some terrible stuff to keep Sadam alive for as long as possible.

729 Also posted to: Home page . At: 1:14:38 AM  . .
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Other title(s) for this story: csmonitor: Inspectors, US part ways on Iraq

"Q Ari, another question on the timing. How can there not be a timetable? How can time be running out if there's not a timetable? I don't get it.

MR. FLEISCHER: Because as you repeatedly asked me in the past, what exactly is the timetable? And I've said in the past, that's something Saddam Hussein will have to figure out.

Q Right, but now you say that time is running out.

MR. FLEISCHER: That's correct."

719 Also posted to: Home page . At: 11:18:41 PM  . .
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Other title(s) for this story: Whitehouse: Press Briefing by Ari Fleischer

"But if there is no Mitzna separation, by 2010 there will be more Palestinians than Jews living in Israel and the occupied territories. Then Israel will have three options: The Israelis will control this whole area by apartheid, or they will control it by expelling Palestinians, or they will grant Palestinians the right to vote and it will no longer be a Jewish state. Whichever way it goes, it will mean the end of Israel as a Jewish democracy."

Interesting article. With no answers, and none that I can see either, except the inevitable: grant Palestinians the right to vote -- no longer a Jewish state.

717 Also posted to: Home page . At: 9:27:38 PM  . .
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Other title(s) for this story: The New Math

" The Sunday Times said the secure rooms encased in 18-inch-thick steel walls would provide shelter for the royal family from bombings, gas attacks, assassination attempts -- and even a direct hit by a light aircraft.

The rooms, which the paper said were ordered after a security review after last year's Sept. 11 attacks on the United States, would be equipped with secure communications, and everything needed to survive for at least a week."

Oh goody! (Sarcasm.) At least Londoners will know she's safe when they're all dead.

713 Also posted to: Home page . At: 10:16:45 PM  . .
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Other title(s) for this story: Yahoo! News - Panic Rooms to Protect British Royals -- and Dogs

"Only later did it become clear that the president already had made up his mind. In July 2002, the State Department's director of policy planning, Richard N. Haass, held a regular meeting with Rice and asked whether they should talk about the pros and cons of confronting Iraq.

Don't bother, Rice replied: The president has made a decision."

A good background of the history of the ouster for Iraq. But looking further back than 9/11 is pointless.

Good thing about warblogging, is that I can look back into July 2002, into what was being released (I called it then 'testing public reaction') into the news UK: we will use nukes first:

"Mr Hoon said then: "There has been no change in the essential rules we follow on the use of nuclear weapons. They would be used in only what are described as extreme conditions of self-defence ... proportionately and consistently with our obligations in international law."
Mr Hoon caused anger this year when he said Britain would be ready to use its long range nuclear weapons against Iraq."

Not a lot was said against it, possibly because most thought it would never happen.

712 Also posted to: Home page . At: 9:08:48 PM  . .
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Other title(s) for this story: Washington Post: U.S. Decision On Iraq Has Puzzling Past

"A new federal terrorism insurance law signed late last year by President Bush requires companies to begin offering coverage for potentially catastrophic losses by Feb. 24. The federal government agreed to cover 90 percent of damages in excess of $10 billion, up to $100 billion.

But while the law mandates coverage, pricing remains a problem for major cities such as Washington because there is little experience with terrorist attacks, yet the cost is potentially astronomical."

Once again the US is leading the way. Here we are told that terrorism is like an act of god and won't be paid on.

706 Also posted to: Home page . At: 11:07:45 AM  . .
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Other title(s) for this story: D.C. Disputes Insurance Study Raising Rates For Terrorism (washingtonpost.com)

"Intelligence sources report mounting fears within US and Israeli counter-terrorism agencies that al Qaedaâs three command centers are preparing mega-terror attacks for US and Israeli targets."

"They believe that, for the time being, al Qaeda has foregone a nuclear, radiological or chemical option in favor of biological warfare, because of the weapons systems believed to have been made available by Iraqi military intelligence and already in the hands of three al Qaeda commanders."

One of these commanders may be in Europe. Just a few bottles of smallpox released in London, Doug, my mate... Tell me what would happen to the property boom then? What would happen to the economy?

702 Also posted to: Home page . At: 12:39:09 AM  . .
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Other title(s) for this story: DEBKAfile: Al Qaeda prepares bio-terror for US and Israel

""Poison gas strangles and then kills you," said Silad Mizrahi, age 10, seated at his desk. "The thing that worries me is that I won't have enough time to put my mask on before the gas takes effect.""

Are you teaching your grand children how to wear a gas mask Doug, my mate?

701 Also posted to: Home page . At: 12:34:34 AM  . .
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Other title(s) for this story: IHT: Gas mask 101: Israelis get ready for the worst

"The author warns his readers, "Be very careful when preparing poisons. It is much, much more dangerous than preparing explosives! I know several Mujahids [Jihad warriors] whose bodies are finished due to poor protection, etc."

The "recipe book" portion of the manual lists the ingredients necessary for the preparation of potassium cyanide and hydrogen sulfide gas. "You MUST wear gloves and a gas mask during preparation and handling of cyanides," the manual warns. "Do not touch it even with a gloved hand. Inhalation of its odor will lead to headaches, dizziness, fever and stomach pain." "

Written in 1996. Do you see this Doug, my mate? Shall we still and always be nice to the Arab world, Doug, my mate? (See below.)

700 Also posted to: Home page . At: 12:29:09 AM  . .
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Other title(s) for this story: israelinsider: Hamas pursuing chemical, biological weapons

"Royal & Sun Alliance is to tell households holding its insurance policies that it will not cover them for chemical, biological and nuclear attacks.

The company joins rivals such as Norwich Union, which has also sought to "clarify" the fact that policyholders are not covered for modern terrorist weapons such as dirty bombs"

Oh really. Now there's a surprise. (Sarcasm.)

699 Also posted to: Home page . At: 12:23:26 AM  . .
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Other title(s) for this story: Guardian: Insurers warn households over terror cover

"FORMER Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd yesterday launched a scathing attack on plans to attack Iraq.: 'The greatest danger might not arise in fighting Hussein's forces - which could last only a few days - but in the aftermath in a region that would see itself unmistakably under the domination of the US, the protector of Israel.'"

It's already happened, Doug, my mate. Already they hate the US, it's been and is being taught to them in schools.

"Lib Dem foreign affairs spokes-man Menzies Campbell said: "Douglas Hurd makes public anxieties felt by virtually everyone with a knowledge of the Middle East and an understanding of the Arab world."

They need a massive show of force, a huge defeat. Just as the US has been attacked (9/11) so the Arab world needs to see retaliation, ten fold.

698 Also posted to: Home page . At: 12:15:14 AM  . .
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Other title(s) for this story: Mirror: Hurd: war may breed more terror